Deckers Outdoor Corporation is a shoe manufacturer with headquarters in California, stocking, among others, the shoe brands Teva, Simple and UGG Australia, which also become famous in the German-speaking world for marketing the so-called “UGG boots”.

Fundamentally, the most recent numbers of the annual report led to great disappointment, which resulted in a sell-off and led to a price gap of 18% in the trend direction. Since then, the prices have laboriously recovered again and are already showing considerable weakness once more. In this analysis, we will go into more detail on scenarios for further falling prices.


DECK – daily chart


The stock’s current chart image

In the daily chart, the price gap from the 3rd February can be clearly seen. Here, sell-offs occurred with high volume following the announcement of the earnings on the previous evening. The price gap formed in the trend direction, and for us it serves as a movement for the superior trend.
Currently, this trend is in a correction and has, since mid-February, been struggling rather cumbersomely in an upwards direction. What stands out is the ricocheting of the prices at the SMA 50, which is used by many market participants in combination with the SMA 200. In the past, this stock has reacted at the SMA 50 many times already, and it seems as though the market participants pay it special attention in this value – even in the years before 2016.

Having said that, the SMA 50 is not yet an entry reason for us; nevertheless, we should keep an eye out for signals and particular weakness precisely at points such as these, in which it can be demonstrated that a market has reacted often in the past.


Two targets and 20% chance

Starting from the current price, one can measure about 20% to the first target and 24% to the second target. The target zones for partial sell-offs are drawn in green – this is where the trader should take profits and activate partial sell-offs at the very latest. As long as the prices do not significantly exceed the high at 62 USD, a short scenario is still conceivable. However, if the SMA 200 is surpassed, this short idea should be considered with caution – in this case, if further strength emerges in the market, one should seek further security for entries by means of clear signals, or reduce the position size. Entries and stop management take place via trend or swing trading.

Before an entry, one should take into account company news as well as news from the overall markets and the activities of the central banks.



Depending on formation of the hourly trend, between 51 USD – 58 USD

Depending on formation of the hourly trend, at the last high.

1st target zone: at 45 USD
2nd target zone: at 42 USD




Disclosure of possible conflicts of interest:
At the time of publishing this analysis, the author is not invested in the securities or underlyings discussed.


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